DIBP obviously goofed by not inviting any of the pro rata occupations (which based on the 4th July invite round looks like 449 per round).

We have not been able to confirm with DIBP yet whether they will double up on the 3rd August round to make up for that or if they will spread this shortfall over the remaining 22 rounds this program year.

It is interesting to look at where from DIBP may seek to fill their 189 visa allocation which last year was 28,976. In the 4th July round DIBP wanted to invite 2600 but there were only 2202 that were eligible at 60 points given the pro rata restrictions. So that was already a shortfall of 398. It was sort of a double invite round anyhow (as 1200/1300 would seem more of an average target to get to around 29,000 over the whole year). I expect this double invite round was because of the number of closed occupations in April 2016 that could then have their backlog cleared (Engineers etc). Although interestingly the pro rata occupations were not doubled up on 4th July..

Now we move forward to the 20th July round and there was a more reasonable 1300 invited. DIBP only were able to find 848 eligible at the minimum 60 points, which if you then add the missing pro rata occupations due to the DIBP systems problems would come to 1297. So a shortfall of 3. So DIBP even at the lower number of 1300 still did not have enough places to fill this second round.

Going forward I expect that the 489s will continue to enjoy numbers (last year the average was just 13 per round, it has been 100 for each of the first 2 rounds this year).

If some other occupations that are not pro rata (Engineers and Computer Network Professsionls) again fill up and close early in 2017, DIBP are simply not going to have enough eligible 189 EOIs at 60 points to fill their program target. The program target is ultimately more important to them than individual occupational quotas in my opinion.

There are not going to be enough 489s to fill the gap unless they increase the number over 100 per round. And that pool may get exhausted depending how many 60 pointers they have. they only have one month of 65 pointers left in that category based on the latest round so they will soon start to eat up the long waiting 60 pointers.

Where will DIBP go to grant the extra invites ? Maybe the States will be given more places for 190/489s. However some states simply will not want greater numbers as they will have likely requested and been granted close to what they wanted anyhow by DIBP when pre program requests were made.

Will DIBP relax the pro rata occupational numbers towards the end of the program year to get closer to their annual program target ?

Watch this space !!

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www.border.gov.au/Trav/Work/Skil/20-july-2016-round-results