February 6th, 2019

What the heck has happened to 2613 Software and Applications Programmers ??

We have received a lot of emails from people asking about 2613 Software and Applications Programmer invites and the confusion over the invite dates. So we thought we would update everyone with our thoughts :

Cut off date for the last 4 invitation rounds –

11th October 2018 70 points (EOI effect date 17/01/2018) 1011 invites
This round cleared all the 75+ pointers and moved the invite date from 21/09/2017 up to 17/01/2018 at 70 points, so nearly 4 months. We believe around 635 visas were lodged (on DOHA figures we have) and so 376 were wasted. These wasted EOIs would go back into the EOI system in 60 days in time for the Dec 18 round, except for a small number who had been invited previously.

11th November 2018 70 points (EOI effect date 06/04/2018) 1011 invites
This round cleared all the 75+ pointers and moved the invite date from 17/01/2018 up to 06/04/2018, so nearly 3 months. We believe around 700 visas were lodged (on DOHA figures we have) and so 311 were wasted. These wasted EOIs would go back into the EOI system in 60 days for the Jan 19 round, except for a small number who had been invited previously.

11th December 2018 70 points (EOI effect date 01/04/2017) 581 invites
This round cleared all the 75+ pointers and moved the invite date for 70 pointers back 12 months to 01/04/2017. The only thing that makes sense to us (assuming DOHA have not made an error) is that when the 75+ pointers were all invited there was only ONE invite left for those at 70 points to be given away. Someone had suspended their EOI that had an effect date from 01/04/2017, then unsuspended it recently. And so this would be the oldest 70 pointer in the skill select system. So they get that invite. Our estimate is that around 300 were wasted in December (including 150 from Oct18 that had come back into the skillselect system after 60 days)

11th January 2019 70 points (EOI effect date 23/01/2018) 581 invites (approx)
This round cleared all the 75 pointers and moved the invite date at 70 points back to 23/01/2018 when it was effectively 06/04/2018 two months previously. This one is easier to explain. Again there would not have been many invitations given to the 70 pointers and there were lots of wasted 70 pointers invited back from November 2018 (who would have had an EOI effect date somewhere from 17/01/2018 to 06/04/2018). These wasted invites would have gone back into the skill select system after 60 days just in time for the Jan19 round. And they all have to be invited a second time now. We think there may have only been around 50 invites given to 70 pointers and so effectively they were given to people being invited a SECOND time with an EOI effect date from 17/01/2018 through to 23/01/2018 who had previously been invited in Nov18. Also our estimate is around 260 wasted in January 2019 (including around 110 from Nov18 that had come back in the skillselect system after 60 days)

 

What happens now ?
We assume that DOHA will continue with around 581 invitations for each of the next few months.

Presently around 400 EOIs are being lodged at 75+ points each month and these will have to be invited first each round. Hardly any of these are likely to be wasted as they are EOIs lodged in the last 30 days. That leaves around 181 invites for the 70 pointers
There are probably around 250 wasted invites at 70 points in the skillselect system with an EOI date from 23/01/2018 to 06/04/2018 that have to be invited for a 2nd time before DOHA can get to invite the real 70 pointers with an EOI date from 06/04/2018 onwards.
Even when these 250 are cleared there will be around 40% of the 70 pointers in April18 and a few months after that likely to be wasted as many people will have improved their points and lodged a second EOI. But left their first EOI in the system at 70 points. These will waste 2 invites each.

So we think DOHA will likely get back to April18 invites at 70 points by around the 11/03/2019 skill select round. But that 70 pointers will continue to move slowly through that period after that.

We will update our estimates based on this new wastage and movements after the February 11th round next week. Hope you have found this useful.

(c) Iscah 2019

 

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