Here are our thoughts ..
So, the question for 23rd August 2017 is – will there be any 65 point invites ?
This depends on whether there are more than 1000 eligible EOIs at 70 or above, in the system at time of invite. Let’s work through one of many possible scenarios, to get an idea of how things work and may go:
We will have 239 Accountants, 66 Auditors and 78 ICT Business Analysts at 70 and above and, I estimate, about 120 non-pros at 70 and above – that takes up about half of the 1000 invites.
The question then is, how many do the other 5 Pro rata occupations have at 70 and above in the system on 23rd August 2017:
Let’s assume no more than 5 Electronics Engineers out of the 50, are at 70 and above.
Let’s assume about 200 of the 310 Software Engineers are at 70 and above
Let’s assume about 70 of the 108 mechanical Engineers are at 70 and above
Let’s assume all 50 of the Other Engineers are at 70 and above
Let’s assume about 45 of the 65 Network Pros are at 70 and above
So about 370 giving a total of about 870 of the 1000 invites at 70 and above
This would give us about 130 invites at the 65 point level.
Keeping to the above assumptions this would mean:
38 invites to the Mechanical Engineers from 19th November 2016. They looked to be adding about 7 per day at 65 points in November – so that would move the 65 DOE from 19th November 2016 to about 25th November 2016 – leaving 92 invites of the 1000.
Assuming Other Engineers reached their 50 in the 70s, no invites for them at 65 points.
Network Pros would be next cab of the rank and 20 invites go to them from 3rd February 2016. They looked to be adding about 4 per day at the 65 point level – so the DOE may only move about 5 days to 8th February 2017 – leaving 72 invites of the 1000.
Software Engineers would be next and they would swallow up the remaining 72 invites. They seemed to be adding about 15 per day at 65 – so they may only move 5 days to about the 13th March 2017.
Even if I have been a bit conservative with the number of possible invitations, it is a similar situation e.g. if 250 invites flowed down to the 65 pointers, it would mean that Mechanical, Network and Software would move maybe 2 weeks or more along their backlog and still nothing for all other occupations. If Software moves over a month along their backlog, this could then mean 65 point invites for Electronic Engineers from April 2017.