August 13th, 2019

August 2019 Estimates on when you may get your 189 invite

Obviously it was a disappointing August round of 189 invites. It looks like around 100 invites in total.

No explanation yet from DHA why such a drop from the 1000 of July 2019. One possibility is that with around 20,000 undecided 189 applications currently lodged with DHA, that is already the whole of the reduced 2019/2020 visa program for that category. So to keep processing times from blowing out DHA may have decided to drastically reduce the number of new 189 invites.

Also the Immigration minister said yesterday that regional migration is their priority so maybe they want to push some top quality migrants to the new 491 visa from November 2019

It would seem unusual though not to have started this in July at the start of the program year , rather than August.

Until we hear some logic behind this we are going to assume that DHA will resume at around 1000 invites per month for the rest of the program year from September onwards, as this reflects close to what their target number of visa grants are for 189s in the latest budget papers.

It looks that DHA will try and fill around 70% of each occupational ceiling and will split the ceiling half for 189s and half for the new 491s that start from 16/11/2019

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These estimates are heavily influenced by the number of invitations that DHA issue each round, the limitations against some of the pro rata occupations, and a number of other factors listed here – https://www.iscah.com/use-189-eoi-predictions/

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