September 11th, 2019

September 2019 Estimates on when you may get a 189 invitation

Another low figure of likely close to 100 invitations

Our best guess is that with around 18000 visa applications (including family members) already lodged and undecided from the 2018/19 financial year, there is no need for DHA to issue many invites for a few months

DHA have a budget target of 18,625 grants less 2000 for NZ citizens.
DHA have a backlog of 18000 cases.
To reduce this to 10000 (so processing remains at 7 months average) we
believe DHA will only want 9000 new applicants.
Factor in 30% wastage is 12800 applicants
Each applicant has 2.0 people means 6,400 invitations
100 per month until November 2019, 700 until June 2020 then back to 1000 a month in July
Split as 70% for Pro Rata occupation invites and 30% for non Pro Rata invites

(Note these estimates do not yet factor in extra Partner points from 16/11/2019. In general all invite marks will rise by 5 points then)

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Estimated 189 invitation times
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if you want a personal estimate on your EOI –
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These estimates are heavily influenced by the number of invitations that DHA issue each round, the limitations against some of the pro rata occupations, and a number of other factors listed here –