Another low figure of likely close to 100 invitations

Our best guess is that with around 18000 visa applications (including family members) already lodged and undecided from the 2018/19 financial year, there is no need for DHA to issue many invites for a few months

Assumptions
DHA have a budget target of 18,625 grants less 2000 for NZ citizens.
DHA have a backlog of 18000 cases.
To reduce this to 10000 (so processing remains at 7 months average) we
believe DHA will only want 9000 new applicants.
Factor in 30% wastage is 12800 applicants
Each applicant has 2.0 people means 6,400 invitations
100 per month until November 2019, 700 until June 2020 then back to 1000 a month in July
Split as 70% for Pro Rata occupation invites and 30% for non Pro Rata invites

(Note these estimates do not yet factor in extra Partner points from 16/11/2019. In general all invite marks will rise by 5 points then)

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Estimated 189 invitation times
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These estimates are heavily influenced by the number of invitations that DHA issue each round, the limitations against some of the pro rata occupations, and a number of other factors listed here – https://iscah.com/use-189-eoi-predictions/