November 1st, 2019

Updated 189 Invitation Estimates for November/December 2019

Ok folks

We have received new information about a sharp reduction in 189 visa applications currently lodged with DHA. As a result DHA can now invite a few more EOIs each month and still keep the current backlog at sustainable levels.

First of all we have assumed 1200 invites for November 11th (about an average over the last couple of months and also what we think DHA will average for the rest of the program year). Note it could be anything from 100-2000 in November, we are just taking an average to give an indication of what the figures may look like for the next round. As that will allow us to to then present our NEW estimates table for after 16/11/2019 with more sense.

So we think DHA may get close to the following for the 11th November 2019 skill select round
Accountant @ 90 points (EOI effect date 03/11/2019)
Auditor @ 85 points (EOI effect date 23/04/2019)
Electronics Engineer @ 80 points (EOI effect date 02/07/2019)
Ind/Mech/Prod Engineer @ 80 points (EOI effect date 10/06/2019)
Other Engineering professional @ 80 points (EOI effect date 30/04/2019)
ICT Business Analyst @ 80 points (EOI effect date 28/04/2019)
Software App Programmer @ 80 points (EOI effect date 30/05/2019)
Comp Net Professional @ 80 points (EOI effect date 26/05/2019)
NON Pro Rata @ 80 points (EOI effect date 08/07/2019)

 

Then it all changes for the December 11th round as follows –

We have incorporated the new 16/11/2019 points test changes for partner and stem points. Have assumed around 1200 invites each month (AVERAGE) and split them as 65% Pro Rata and 35% for non pro rata occupations. Also that 30% of EOIs are for single people, 10% have a skilled partner and another 10% have a partner with competent english. We have staggered this partner effect to recognise that those people on higher scores now, will more likely to have used 5 partner points already

Remember that single people will get 10 points extra on 16/11/2019 and keep the SAME EOI effect date they currently have.
We have also assumed (this is not confirmed) that EOIs that include a partner who are able to claim 5 points extra for their partner’s english or skills will keep the same EOI date as they currently have. We have NOT confirmed this with DHA but it is the fairest assumption at this stage.

As you will see from the table many EOI invite dates have gone backwards at each score (to accommodate the new people at each score level who have jumped up) and generally each occupation requires 5 points etc. It is REALLY important you don’t compare it to the old points system and old invite dates as the movement of old EOIs to higher scores and some wasted invites mean that the date will look like it has gone backwards. For example Accountants at 100 points on 11/8/2019 were already invited. But from 16/11/2019 there will be single people on 90 points with an August 2019 EOI who get 10 points extra to get to 100 points and so now can get invited at 100 points.

 

So here it is .. the estimates table that will take place from AFTER the 11th November 2019

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These estimates are heavily influenced by the number of invitations that DHA issue each round, the limitations against some of the pro rata occupations, and a number of other factors listed here – https://www.iscah.com/use-189-eoi-predictions/

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