January 12th, 2018

What we use for our 189 EOI predictions – (updated 19th August 2018)

What factors we put into our Skill Select predictions

    (Updated 19th August 2018)
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    We are often asked how we predict the dates that we estimate for our 189 invitations tables.
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    So we thought we would list some of the main factors that we take account of. We don’t guarantee that we will be correct and there are many factors outside our control. In fact the way that DIBPs skill select system has experienced recent problems there are many factors outside their control as well …
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    Remember our goal is not to be over optimistic or pessimistic. Instead be simply realistic.
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    Anyhow here are the main factors we look at in no particular order in order to be as accurate as possible
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    – Total round invites in the next few rounds
    – What needs to be invited each round on average to reach the 15,600 average invites DoHA have suggested will continue
    – How many invites may have family members that count as part of the total program
    – The number of New Zealand citizens who will be part of the 189 program and that their family sizes are bigger
    – DoHAs backlog of applications already lodged
    – That DoHA may wish to not have a backlog of applications still being processed prior to a new points test
    – The Ceiling for each occupation, and the lower ceilings currently being imposed than the official figures
    – How many non pro ratas may gain an invite each round that takes away from the Pro rata invites
    – How many EOIs for each occupation may be sitting at 65,70,75,80 points
    – What the last invite date and score was at each of those point levels for each occupation
    – When the 70/75/80 pointers are clear, what is the backlog on the level below that and in which pro rata occupation as they will get invited first
    – How quickly the invitation date has moved in the past at each point level
    – DoHAs policy to restrict Accountants/Auditors in some rounds to have a more “balanced” invitation across other occupations
    – At each level of invitations (for example 300, 1000, 2000), which pro rata occupations do and do not use their full quota each round
    – The effect of the double/triple invitations on some occupations
    – Factoring in that EOIs more recently are higher point scoring at each occupation than in past months/years
    – Some extra herbs and spices about skill select we observe from round to round ..
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    (Please send any questions only to query@iscah.com)