February 11th, 2020
The 10th January 2020 round looks around 800-1200 invitations for the 189 visas.
We have upgraded our estimate to 1000 invites (on average) for the last 4 months of the financial year. Due to DHA having must less onhand 189 applications (points test and NZ citizens) now.
Our unofficial invitation results for 11th February are here –
Our Assumptions are on the table below
Interestingly DHA have gone away from their strict model of allocating 60-65% of invites to Pro Rata and 35-40% of invites to Non Pro Rata occupations in the January 2020 round. Out of 1000 invites we would have expected around 650 to go to Pro rata occupations. Instead 765 went to Pro Rata occupations and this included a fair few given invites for 491 family sponsored (yes they count as part of the occupational ceilings). This flow over to 491 invites does not explain all of the increased Pro Rata allocation. For example the last time there was a clear 1000 invites given JUST for 189s was July 2019. At that time Accountants were given 83 invites (but 98 in Jan 2020) and Auditor was given 47 (56 in Jan 2020). So in fact some occupations have been given more invites and they have gone to 491 Family sponsored. Whilst others (Accountant and Auditors in particular) received more invites and they went to just 189s.
We have built this new information into our predictions as well.
Remember that these predictions are based on statistics from DHA and current policy settings. If DHA change from 100 to 1500 to 250 invites like they have in recent months it has an effect on invitation estimates too. Hence why we take an average (1000 over each of the next 4 months)
For the 491 (family sponsored) visa DHA have limited themselves to only inviting MLTSSL occupations that are non pro rata in most cases. However there is the possibility for some Pro Rata occupations to get an invite if the 189 round does not use all the places for that occupation in that round (this can sometimes happen). As a result of this limited number of eligible applicants the 491 invite score dropped from 95 to 85 points . We expect this trend to continue and for 80 point applicants (65+15 for sponsor) to get an invite in March 2020. Especially if you are not a pro rata occupation.
If you want a personal estimate on your EOI date –
(NEW) ISCAH Visa Report on YOUR Occupation
If you want your 491 process managed –
(NEW) your 491 Process managed